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I just came across this critique by Pantazatos and Seligmann which addresses the Imperial College "20 million saved" paper in the Lancet. They pointed out a number of problems with the model and its facial implausibility. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/361631679_Commentary_on_Global_impact_of_the_first_year_of_COVID-19_vaccination_a_mathematical_modelling_study_The_Lancet_Infectious_Diseases_2022_Jun_23

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