Japan Matches Germany's 2022 Mortality Spike

Part 9 in our series on Covid policy outcomes

Japan just released mortality data for the final three months of 2022. As you can see below, the year did not end well.

When we published our global survey of Covid policy outcomes in February – Mortality Play: 2020 vs. 2021-22 – the German data for 2022 had just arrived. It showed after a quiescent 2020, German mortality surged in 2021 and 2022.¹ Several big nations had yet to deliver year-end reports, though, so we think it’s useful to follow up on one important nation with lots of State Capacity.

As we mentioned last time, Japan survived 2020 with little Covid. For the year, it actually enjoyed a mortality deficit. Even the first four months of 2021 were mild. Then in May 2021, excess mortality began to rise and has remained elevated ever since.

It’s impossible not to notice that the excess mortality rise coincides with the rollout of the mRNA Covid vaccines — which began in April but really accelerated in May 2021. Japan is among the very most vaccinated nations, with 373 million total doses, or more than three per capita, as of December 31, 2022. Correlation doesn’t always equal causation, of course. Start and end points in data series can be arbitrary. Yet it does not seem unreasonable to inquire about health in the pre- and post-vaccine periods.

The difference is stark. Between January 2017 and April 2021, excess mortality was just -0.02%. In other words, total observed mortality for the period matched expected mortality almost exactly.

Beginning in May 2021 and stretching to December 2022, however, excess mortality ballooned to +6.70% — or 158,000 additional deaths. In 2022, it was +8.02%. The total excess may actually understate the problem, because, as we saw in Germany and in the U.S. life insurance data, 2021 and 2022 saw striking mortality spikes among young and middle age cohorts. We’ll look for age breakdowns in Japan and report back.

What could explain these results?

Did particularly successful lockdown policies in 2020 delay Covid’s arrival until 2021-22? Possibly.

One point of extreme lockdown policies, however, was to avoid Covid until the vaccines showed up, at which point Covid would be neutralized. Clearly, this strategy failed.

Does a mortality deficit in 2020 help explain the rise in 2021? Perhaps. So let’s say they cancel each other out.

It remains: The Japanese experience in 2022 is so unusual compared to its own history, and yet so similar to so many other high income nations during this period, a common factor differentiating 2020 and 2021-22 deserves further intense investigation.

---

Comments on State Capacity Covidology

The One Million Lives Saved Claim: Part 1

Double Down Hallucination: Part 2

Who Really Wanted to Speed Remedies?: Part 3

Defending Steph Curry: A Computer Model: Part 4

Where Did All the Workers Go?: Part 5

A Narrative That’s Too Big To Fail: Part 6

Mortality Play: 2020 vs. 2021-22: Part 7

Dr. Frieden’s Follies: Part 8

Japan Matches Germany's 2022 Mortality Spike: Part 9

Society of Actuaries Shows Continued Young Adult Mortality Spike: Part 10

Dr. Hotez’s Data Is Highly Flawed: Part 11

Covid and the Golly Folly: The blind spot of gee whiz technology futurism: Part 12

1. Update on May 27, 2023. The pre-print we cited showing German mortality 2020-22 has now been published in Cureus. Kuhbandner C, Reitzner M (May 23, 2023) Estimation of Excess Mortality in Germany During 2020-2022. Cureus 15(5): e39371. doi:10.7759/cureus.39371. Here’s the link: https://www.cureus.com/articles/149410-estimation-of-excess-mortality-in-germany-during-2020-2022#!/.