Our Election Estimate Favors Optimistic "Back to the Future" Coalition
Early vote tilts to GOP. Democrats need extraordinary Election Day vote.
Since our last item – If Trump Wins – the election betting markets have narrowed, though Trump still retains a lead of 59.3% on Polymarket. The final RealClearPolitics average of national polls landed improbably as an exact TIE.
Our best guess, despite a paltry history of political prognostication, shows 312 electoral votes for Trump and 226 for Harris.
Here are the most important factors we’re looking at going into Election Day.
In 2020, President Biden led the final RCP national average by 6.9%, and in 2016, Hillary Clinton led by an average of 3.2%. Given that Trump won in 2016 and nearly won in 2020 while losing the popular vote both times, a national tie, ceteris paribus, implies electoral college success for Trump.
The early vote gap is dramatically compressed, favoring Republicans. The Democrats concentrated on early voting last time, but this year, their early vote has fallen sharply. The GOP early vote, meanwhile, appears relatively strong. For example, in 2020 in Pennsylvania, when Covid spurred mass mail-in balloting, the Democrats banked 1,587,654 early votes, compared to 547,616 for the GOP – a lead of 1.04 million. In 2024, however, the Democrats have banked just 893,998 (693,656 fewer) and the GOP 521,199 (close to 2020). This year, the Democratic early vote lead in PA, therefore, plunged by 667,239 votes. Similar if less extreme patterns appear across the country.
The GOP’s early vote efforts have been especially effective banking “low propensity” or new voters – those who’ve cast ballots infrequently in recent elections. High propensity voters – those who vote most of the time – can be expected to vote on Election Day. The Democrats have mostly banked high-propensity voters. If GOP voters turn out as expected on Election Day, Trump should win. Democrats need an extraordinary Election Day turnout to win.
But Democratic enthusiasm seems severely depressed – especially in its urban strongholds. Black male and Hispanic shifts away from Harris appear significant if not massive.
The Right Track (35%) / Wrong Track (65%) favors the challenger.
The Iowa Selzer poll looks to be nonsense.
As far as messaging goes, Trump won the last month, but Harris may have won the last week. Trump succeeded with joyful McDonald’s and Garbage Truck theatrics, including a focus on inflation and the border, while Harris was spitting Hitler venom. But then in the final week, Trump lost his focus, and Harris closed with superficial good vibes.
A strong stock market and headline GDP numbers are tailwinds for Harris. Wonky jobs numbers, however, may be overstated in a number of ways and explain why many voters don’t feel economic growth. For example, fewer American-born workers are employed today than before the pandemic, while full-time jobs have fallen by 1.3 million since June 2023.
On our map, we have the least confidence in Michigan going Trump. Polls show it consistently a point or two to the “left” of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Could Michigan’s internal combustion engine culture work against Trump and his electric car ally Elon Musk? On the other hand, the three Rust Belt states normally move together, and the Michigan polls could easily understate Trump by several points.
A really strong day for Trump could also tip the scales in New Hampshire, Virginia, Minnesota, and/or New Mexico.
All of this is contingent on a fair election. If the national and state polls are even close to accurate, they imply Trump wins in most or all swing states by enough to overwhelm inevitable ballot hijinks.
If Trump wins, we see a “Back to the Future” coalition: (1) Trump as old school capitalist, border enforcer, and foreign policy realist; (2) RFK Jr. as old school liberal, committed to free speech and other civil liberties, in addition to lower-case science and public health (as opposed to “The Science”); and (3) Elon Musk as optimistic techno-futurist, reinvigorating unbounded American innovation and exploration.
A Kamala win, on the other hand – we struggle to put this even-handedly – is a win for the status quo, for the Regime, for Washington D.C., for massively more spending, centralized decision-making, industrial policy, mass migration, green energy largesse, bailouts, regulation, lawfare, progressive social policy, an extended war in Ukraine, unpredictable and panicked policy over climate, pandemics, and A.I., and continued crack downs on Internet speech.
A Kamala win would spur a GOP civil war. Never Trumpers and establishment types will counsel a return to Bush/McCain/Romney/Ryan/McConnellism. MAGA world will scramble and regroup in a hundred ways. Realist JD Vance and neocon Nicki Haley will square off. The Democrats will destroy Elon Musk and the emerging techno-optimist builders if they do not bend the knee.
Our best guess is tomorrow America votes for the Back to the Future coalition.
Our electoral map prediction turned out exactly correct.
I'm in UK so it shouldn't matter to me but it does of course. The thing is people lie. They don't mean to but if a pollster rings you up (never has me) and says are you going to vote for X who is promising to bring back capital punishment,shame and stigma for single mothers,no hand outs for impecunious people and cheap alcohol nobody says YESS!!! that sounds heavenly to me. They know that even in the mind of one anonymous,to them,person they would come across as a complete asshole,even worse if they're in the audience of a tv debate or out on the street approached by a vox pop. Everybody SAYS the virtuous option,oh I'm going to vote for the high tax social equality candidate. It sounds good,nice,and honourable. And they don't. Ha ha.