Defending Steph Curry: A Computer Model

Comments on State Capacity Covidology: Part 4

Jan 08, 2023

The Chicago Bulls basketball team wants to test my defensive abilities. They bring me in to the practice gym, and Steph Curry, one of the greatest shooters in basketball history, is waiting.

The test is simple: Curry gets to take 20 shots from behind the 3-point line while I guard him. Can I stop Curry from scoring?

Steph Curry explodes for 47 points versus Sacramento, November 7, 2022.

In games, Curry normally makes 45% of his 3-pointers. In practice, Curry makes better than 50%.

But today Curry is facing me, a six-foot has-been. It’s magical. I am fierce. I feel quick. I’m getting in Curry’s face. Curry’s off today, sure. And he’s shooting left handed. And I may even have knocked him on the elbow during his shooting motion several times. But I was playing great D. Really.

Curry only makes 1 out of 20 shots. With Curry’s 5% success rate (1 out of 20), I am around 90% effective at preventing Curry from scoring at his normal rate of 50% (10 out of 20).

I am immediately signed by the Bulls as their defensive specialist. Watch out Luka, KD, and LeBron.

The first time we travel to the Bay Area to face Curry and the Golden State Warriors, I’m pumped. I’m going to shut Steph down. But Steph doesn’t look nervous. Steph plays only three quarters and scores 45 points, including eleven 3-pointers. The Warriors defeat the Bulls 135-102.

Steph looked great. But just imagine how much worse it would have been for the Bulls if I hadn’t been locking down Steph.

Let’s see what the Bulls Analytics computer model says.

Beep-boop-ba-doop-bop.

I prevent Curry from making baskets at a rate of 90%.
If I hadn’t been guarding him, he’d have made 110 3-pointers and scored 450 points.
The Bulls investment has paid off.
I just D’d up Curry big time and prevented him from scoring an extra 405 points.

Luka contemplates retirement.

Comments on State Capacity Covidology

The One Million Lives Saved Claim: Part 1

Double Down Hallucination: Part 2

Who Really Wanted to Speed Remedies?: Part 3

Defending Steph Curry: A Computer Model: Part 4

Where Did All the Workers Go?: Part 5

A Narrative That’s Too Big To Fail: Part 6

Mortality Play: 2020 vs. 2021-22: Part 7

Dr. Frieden’s Follies: Part 8

Japan Matches Germany's 2022 Mortality Spike: Part 9

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